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Financial Forecasts and Traffic and Revenue Reports

The MDTA updates a six-year financial forecast twice a year. The six year period matches that of the six year Consolidated Transportation Program (CTP). These forecasts evaluate revenues and other funding sources together with projected operating and capital expenditures. The forecasts are a planning tool enabling the MDTA to evaluate its adherence to financial goals and legal requirements. The forecasts indicate the level of revenues necessary to adhere to the rate covenant included in the Trust Agreement and financial policy goals established by the MDTA Board, and thus are used to predict the potential need for future toll increases. The MDTA uses the forecasts to plan debt issuances, ensuring that debt-financed projects do not exceed the permitted statutory debt level or internal debt controls.

Pursuant to state legislation (Senate Bill 182, Chapter 567, Acts of 2008), since 2008, MDTA Members twice per year review and approve a then-current forecast, reflecting either the Draft six year Capital Program and Final Fiscal Year Operating Budget (July of each year) or the Final six year Capital Program and Draft Operating Budget (January of each year). These forecasts are submitted to the Maryland General Assembly.

Recent forecasts are:

Financial Forecast Inputs

Major inputs in the forecasts include traffic and revenue estimates, operating budget (actual + estimated future years), capital budgets, and debt service requirements.

Traffic and Revenue Forecasts:

Investment grade traffic and revenue estimates are generally prepared annually by MDTA's traffic and revenue consultants. These are prepared for legacy facilities (excluding the Intercounty Connector and the I-95 ETL project) and, separately for these two projects.

Legacy Facilities:

Intercounty Connector:

I-95 ETL Project:

Operating Budget:

Prior to the start of a new fiscal year, the MDTA prepares a preliminary budget in November and then finalizes the budget in June. The preliminary budget is incorporated into the Governor's Budget Book, reviewed by the Department of Legislative Services, and presented to Legislative budget and/or transportation committees.

See Operating Budget section for additional information.

Capital Budget:

The MDTA prepares a six-year capital budget, known as the Consolidated Transportation Program (CTP). The budget incorporates all major and minor projects. Major projects include those projects with an estimated cost in excess of $10 million. The MDTA prepares a draft CTP in September and the final CTP is submitted to the Maryland General Assembly in January.

See Capital Budget section for additional information.

Debt Service:

The repayment of MDTA's bonds is done through debt service payments. Significant borrowing by the MDTA to support its capital program commenced in 2004 through 2010 totaling $2.2 billion. This resulted in an increase in scheduled debt service payments in the near term. MDTA's debt service obligation is now forecast to decrease for a period following Fiscal Year 2017. This decrease is due to principal amortizations, the optional redemption of the Series 2004 and Series 2007 toll-backed bonds and the projected refunding (refinancing) of other bonds with above market coupons.

Fiscal Year2017201820192020202120222023
Debt Service Obligation
(in millions)
$ 138.5$ 130.5$ 126.2$ 126.3$ 130.1$ 135.6$ 140.8
Change $--$ (8.0)$ (4.3)$ 0.1$ 3.8$5.55.2
Change %---5.8%-3.3%0.1%3.0%4.2%3.8%

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